Glenrothes – Results & Reflections

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Turnout: 52%

Majority (Labour): 6737

So, in a result which came as big a surprise to Labour as it did the SNP, Lindsay Roy has ended labour’s run of by election defeats by holding the seat of Glenrothes by over 6,000 votes. This is a big result for Labour, especially as they were expected to lose it. Indeed, it has come to light that even as late as 10:30pm, Gordon Brown was told that Labour were probably going to lose the election. Only once the ballots started to be counted it became apparent they were actually going to win. This is in line with what I heard during the day yesterday that the SNP had flooded the streets and Labour did not have optimistic hopes.

Perhaps a further disappointing result was that of the Conservatives. They saw about a 50% decrease in their vote and lost their deposit. Despite finishing 3rd, this was not a good result for the Conservatives, even in Fife.

So what contributed to Labour’s victory? Undoubtedly it has something to do with how Brown is being seen as a hero in the hour of need during the economic crisis. However, if we look at the raw statistics, it shows a 52% turnout which is really quite high for a by election, that’s higher than the turnout at the 2001 general election. My theory is that higher turnouts favour Labour. In Glasgow East, where the turnout was 42%, the SNP won. Here, the turnout is 10% higher and labour have taken 20% more of the vote compared to 2% less in Glasgow East. What this suggests is that in Glasgow East the Labour vote stayed at home, but in Glenrothes the story was different.

Alex Salmond must be kicking himself now, on the morning of the election he was confident of a strong SNP victory, his party didn’t even manage to halve the majority! The result shows that a pro independence vote is not a big as some may suggest. It also shows that Labour should never be written off.

I have to admit, my own predictions of a slender SNP majority were wildly exaggerated, I also expected the Tories to pick up a few more votes than they did.

Overall it was a very good night for Labour, as they not only held Glenrothes, but they also held Forth and Glasgow Baillieston as well. Does this signal Labour turning a corner? I think it might be a corner, but it is only a turn into a dead end road. We know who will be the leader of Labour at the next election. Don’t write off thje possibility of a spring 2009 general election, it could result in a hung parliament.